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The report, by University of California at Davis professor Philip Martin, foretells a future in which the decline of Mexico's population will help ease the job creation challenge there and reduce the inclination to come across the border.

Martin's forecast drew a good-news, bad-news reaction from several experts in fields ranging from social services to businesses in the Valley.

Some agricultural employers say it could make it harder to obtain a steady labor work force. Other agencies say it could help Fresno County reduce its unemployment rate, reported at 12.5% in November, and put less strain on public health and assistance programs.

"If, in fact, there's a decline, it will be tougher for farmers to get that labor," said Peter Weber, co-chairman of the Regional Jobs Initiative. Weber said the decline of Mexico's birthrate is good news overall for the Central Valley.

"A drop of the Mexican birthrate is economically beneficial to Mexico, the United States and the Central Valley. It creates a better match of jobs and workers in Mexico, thereby reducing the economic incentive for illegal immigration to the United States," Weber said.

The December study finds that the number of Mexicans turning 15, the age of labor force entry in Mexico, will drop by 50%. That's a decline from about 1 million a year to 500,000 a year, according to Martin. He says the current high levels of Mexico-U.S. migration should not obscure the fact that the migration will soon drop.

Immigration to the United States from Mexico increased from 1991 to 2000. About "2.2 million Mexicans were admitted as legal immigrants, and 15 million foreigners, 95% Mexicans, were apprehended just inside the U.S. border," according to the report.

The North American Free Trade Agreement did not produce enough "formal sector jobs to reduce emigration pressures," but Martin says the past demographic growth in Mexico presents a different picture in which fewer Mexicans might feel compelled to come.

The Mexican birthrate dropped from 3.4 children per female in 1990 to 2.4 children per female in 2000, said Leo Chavez, professor of anthropology at the University of California at Irvine. Meanwhile, the birthrate in the United States is 2.1 children per female, Chavez said.

The decline of the birthrate began 30 years ago, when the Mexican government debuted a family planning program. Its aim was to reduce the population growth through advertisements and promotions, which proclaimed smaller families are better.

In 1970, the Mexican birthrate was seven to eight children per female, Chavez said.

Contraception use over the years became more acceptable in Mexico. It's common to see television commercials and Mexican soap operas talk about HIV prevention and the consequences of teenage pregnancy.

"It's a Catholic country, but it's secular. They are still Catholic, but it's like American Catholics. Â… You see an increased use of contraceptives," Chavez said.

Some agricultural groups say fewer immigrants will result in more dependence upon machines.

"I don't agree with those demographics. What will reduce it will be mechanization," said Manuel Cunha, president of Nisei Farmers League.

Other agricultural groups wonder whether the Mexican birthrate decline will simply attract a different group of immigrants.

"We care about a stable labor force. We will have no choice to turn to other countries," said Celine Nieto, a spokeswoman for Western Growers Association, a statewide group made up mostly of vegetable growers.

A large number of farmworkers in California come from Mexico, Chavez said.

Agricultural employers might draw more from Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala if Mexico is no longer viable, he said.

Fewer immigrants also could translate into less money for Fresno Unified School District and other schools.

Jefferson Elementary School gets about $430 per English-language learner from the state, said principal Froy Ramírez, former director of the district's Multilingual Multicultural Education Office.

About 62% of the students at Jefferson Elementary are Spanish speakers. A portion of the state money is used for hiring bilingual instructional assistants, he said.

Fresno Unified lost about 800 students last year, and if it loses migrant children in the future, there will be more of a financial impact, he said.

"If in fact the population of immigrant students is declining, there will be less and less money to work with," Ramírez said.

"Some of our schools have small populations of English learners, but the needs of the students are still there."

Weber said fewer immigrants could help reduce the unemployment rate if there are fewer migrants looking for a job when the agricultural season ends.

"Many of the migrants come to the Valley for agricultural jobs and then want year-round jobs," Weber said.

Many of them are low-skilled workers with little education, so they are limited in what type of jobs they can find, he said.

"It's tough for them to hold or find jobs, so they end up unemployed," Weber said.

A decline in immigrants will have less impact on the health industry, except for the use of hospital emergency rooms, which can be costly.

The expensive treatment of uninsured patients forced two emergency rooms to close in Los Angeles County in August. That month, a federal bankruptcy judge ordered the Elastar Community Hospital and its emergency room in East Los Angeles to close after it rung up more than $10 million in debt.

"The undocumented immigrants are still not eligible for health benefits. Many of the farmworkers can't afford health benefits," said Lupe Gonzalez, area coordinator for Binational Health Week Task Force, a program hosted by the California-Mexico Health Initiative.

Latinos, whether they are U.S. citizens or not, have the highest rate of uninsured people, Gonzalez said.

Fewer immigrants in the Central Valley could mean relief for families that need extra assistance, such as food stamps or other programs.

Children of immigrant parents who are born in the United States are eligible for food stamps and the National School Lunch Program.

"The projections might provide some relief Â… in regards to social and economic planning, but we still have the immediate problem of poverty," said Virginia Rondero Hernandez, associate director of research and evaluation for the Central California Children's Institute in Fresno.

Hernandez said many immigrant families don't use food stamps because they either don't know their children are eligible or are afraid it will have a negative impact on their petition to become a U.S. resident.

As of June 30, 2004, more than 256,000 people in Fresno County were receiving food stamps, Medi-Cal, CalWORKs and other assistance.

Of those, the majority were female, Hispanic and English-speaking and lived in an urban area. Hispanics made up 68% of public assistance recipients, according to the Fresno County Department of Employment and Temporary Assistance.

Hernandez says some might be immigrants, but they can also be second- or third-generation Hispanics.

The controversy over Mexican migration and its consequences might subside years from now if the decline in immigrants occurs.

Chavez said: "It will lessen the controversy of Mexicans but not of others.

"You won't be able to point the finger at Mexicans any more."

In a counterargument to Martin's report, Steven Camarota, director of research for The Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, said a lower birthrate might have little impact on immigration because of the complex nature of Mexican migration.

"Mexico has experienced significant drops in fertility rates in 30 years. It so far has not so much had an impact on migration. It's one of many factors," Camarota said.

Higher wages in the United States and the network of Mexican-American families could continue to bring Mexicans to the United States, he said. He cited Russia, which has a much lower birthrate than Mexico, yet many Russians leave because of economic problems.

The reporter can be reached at vcolon@fresnobee.com or (559) 441-6313.

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